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THE ROLE OF PLANNING AND FORECASTING IN BUSINESS ORGANIZATION
CHAPTER ONE
1.1 Introduction
Andrena Faludi state that “planning and Forecasting is the Queen mother function of management (organistion) and that if planning and forecasting fail, what/who will you direct, control, budget staff, co-ordinate or organize rather than provide explanations, explanations are response to state of tension resulting from observing unexpected events. (Toulinin, 9660).
Planning and forecasting present efforts to reduce- surprise caused by such events by giving practicable accounts of how they come about’
WHAT IS PLANNING AND FORECASTING?
FORECASTING:
Forecasting is preparing of an organistion’s future objectives and its current material and personnel inventory, the general or departmental managers makes resources that will be able to do in the future and how many more human and material resource the organisation must hire to meet its goals (Needle 1999: 178)
Any business organization without element of forecasting is like driving a car blind- folded and being directed by a man looking out through the back window. Furthermore, forecasting is prediction. It is an effort by enterprises to know what the future holds for it. Henry Fayol speaks of prevalence as the essence of management. According to Fayol “this looking ahead include both assessing the future and making provision for it.
Modern business management has become a complex activity and so there is the need for adequate forecasting. The need for adequate forecasting is apparent from the key role it plays in planning. Koontzat al stated that, as influence in plans of the entire environment outside the enterprise has come to be increasingly recognizes, forecasting of the environment has risen in importance”
The role of forecasting in business organisation is so important that it must be adapted by managers. The making of forecasting and their review by managers compel thinking ahead looking to the future and providing for it. Also the very act of forecasting may disclose areas where necessary control is lacking.
PLANNING
Andreas Faludi state “man’s understanding of this world and his ability to act in it, depends on his constructing an imaginary in his own mind. This applied equally well to the planner’s understanding of himself and his operation”
Planning in it simplest meaning is the determintion of anything in advance of action.
Planning is defined by koontz O Donneil as , “ deciding in advance what to do, who is to do it, how to do it, how to do it , when to do it , and why it should be done” planning bridge the gap from where we are to wher we want to go.
Planning can also be defined as “a predetermined cause of action that helps to provide purpose and direction for members of an enterprise.
In designing an environment for the effective performance of individual working together in groups, the most essential tasks is to see that purpose and ibjective and mwthod of attaining them are clearly understood.
Planning is the first function of a manager, it is necessary if anything or activities is to reach the denial goal. Through planning, a manager, can approach pre-determined objective rationally. All the work of an executive, whether he knows it or not is some way connective whether he knows it or not, is some way connected with the unfolding of a plan. In identifying the role of planning in business organisation, Koonzet al states that, “ we are in an economic, technological social and political era in which planning like other functions of managers has become requisite far enterprise survival.
Planning is unique in that it established the objective necessary for all group efforts.
Planning and forecasting are important tools of company management and decision making as they assist in the appraisal of investment of current marketing strategy and manpower planning and in the indentification and development of new products and new market, further they promote and facilitate the proper functioning of the many aspects of company’s activities
Planning and forecasting are compliments in that for a good result botjh go together. They could be regarded as independent parts that make a specified whole writing also in this concept, Koontz O’ Donneil states that ‘ forecasting especially where participated throughout the organization, may help to unify and co-ordinae plans. By focusing attention ion the future, it assists in bringing a singleness of purpose to planning.
1.2 BACHGROUND OF THE SUBJECT MATTER
the popular super market called EASTERNSHOP was established in may 28, 1960. about five (5) months after the independence of this country. This took place at Ogui Road, Ogui Road. Then Anambra state now Enugu state, which is formerly known as the headquarters of eastern Nigeria.
The supermarket is situated opposite Nnamdi Azikiwe stadium and around it were other big shops like Boddie’s ABC Transport etc. the amazing thing that concerned this shop is that the manager or the sole proprietor is a family man, that had engaged in other business an finally settled in opening a big supermarket. He entered into the business with little or no experience in the field of supermarket business.
Originally, the name of the managing director of the supermarket is chief M. O. Okoli, Ozo Zuliu Agulu 1 of Agulu in Aniocha local Government Area of (old and New) Anambra stat he is one of the pioneer members of Enugu state association of supermarket. This was to enable him to curb some of the problems that he is passing though, as result of poor forcasting and planning in business. The supermarket has other branches in lagos, and onitsha. In the establishment, he employed general operation magager (GOM) who sees to the running of the who direct the affairs of cashier, store manager and restaurant departments and report to the Gom. Eastern shop is made up of five (s) departments/ units.
- Ø Accounting department
- Ø Cashier department
- Ø Store department
- Ø Restaurant department
- Ø Cold room department
Easterm shop deals mostly on consumer’s goods like cosmetics, wears caned foods baby wears and toys.
The problem of proper planning and forecasting is among the major problems that limits the more clearly seen from an adage that says “ that business is full of risks.
Besides, the researches were able to note that the sum N500 naire was used as initial capital of the business and today the property of the business is on millions and it have more than twenty people as employees. This simply means that it is no longer small scale business at the low required. But as a result of inadequate applocation role, of good understanding in the techniques of forecasting and planning integration in business, the cannot make good pricing quality and quantity of product scales.
Since improper planning is as good as not planning at all, based on the above promising and manifesting problem, there calls for the researchers to investigate the project topic to help the present situation that is facing the business.
1.2 PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBJECT MATTER
It has obviously been that “ he who fails to plan, plans to fail” and it is also believed that he who fails to put records and recognizance of past event should not predict/ forecast future if anybody that fails to envisage the future is bound to crash.
Planning and forecasting have been integrated to be wonderful tools effective ,management since planning and forecasting have been integrated to be wonderful tools for effective management. Since touch used in darkness. We also believed that business dwell in the world of dynamism and unsteady – setting, which called for effective use of planning and forecasting.
It can also be seen as an eye of every business that wants to grow in a competitive environment.
Even the Bible say’s, “ where there is no vision, people perish” in this context vision, which is sight in modern business management, is planning and forecasting. Moreover Hosea 4: 6 said , “ my people perish for lack of knowledge of planning and forecasting. It is because of inadequate knowledge of planning and forecasting. It is because of these present problems and eminent problems, which many business are encountering and also will encounter in future, that make the researcher to bring out the topic title “PLANNING AND FORECASTION IN BUSINESS ORGANISATION from the light of the above, it is approved that for a society to progress is to embrace planning and forecasting.
PETER DRUNNER said that “planning and forecasting is aspect of management is doing not knowing” therefore we should know that planning must be practicalized not nursing or desire in the hear. It is a thing of paramount importance to see that problems or courses of liquidation of problems or courses of result of lack of adequate planning and forecasting. Morever this project necessitate a result that new people and some organisation that recognized the roles of planning and forecasting . they do it any how, with out knowing that planning ius QUEEN MOTHER of all the management and if it fails what / how then will you direct, organize, control, staff and budget it to and so on.
This issue of poor attitude and low understanding of the role or meaning and importance of twin brothers planning and forecasting makes business not to grow well, talk more of progressing. And if any one will progress at all, without working or simply put just by chance or luck, but planning of business is a will program oriented profit venture or business.
In attempt to plan, as many thinks, they do a only half bake planning which is as good as not planning at all, in which most of their planning is found wanting because it lacks the basic elements of planning as regard as follow.
a, Futuristic in out look, that is planning some future problems of business at to day’s door steps beside that future can never be predicted with hundred percent efficiently.
This is why provision has to be made to accommodate future uncertainties.
Theory and practice says that it is done in six step process which shown in the diagram below.
PLANNING PROCESS
All these challenges put together, makes the researchers to found it duly worthy to write on topic, to revive and resurrects a deed and sick business organisation by the power of wonderful role of inseparable twin brothers which is planning and forecasting is queen mother of all management function and if it fails or who and low will one (business manager) direct, control budget, staff and so on and so fort. It is nothing rather that to co-ordinate failed and shame.
1.3 THE PROBLEMS THE STUDY WILL BE CONCERNED WITH.
The problems planning and forecasing encounter in an organisation effects its productivity. Over the years, business organisation has tried a lot engulf managerial progress in Eastern Shop Nigeria a limited Ogui Road Enugu.
The problems are stated thus:
- To know how planning and forecasting in EASTERN SHOP LTD carryout their tasks
- To know both the internal and external affairs of the company.
- Whether the problems are caused as a result of poor motivation.
- what other variables could explain why the problems have been eradicated?
- To know whether the working environment is conducive for planning and forecasting.
These problems also attached itself with the research questions and we will use the same opportunity to discuss the research questions.
RESEARCH QUESTION
Why is planning and forecasting needed in an organisation.
What impact can it create in progress of business
Does planning and forecasting had any theoretical backups and back ground?
Can we really do without planning and forecasting?
What makes planning and forecasting organisation of management?
Is information an effective tool for planning and forecasting in business organization?
On the reason why, is planning and forecasting needed in an organisation, both charitable and none- profit organisation had fail because of inadequate. Planning and forecasting.
Planning having initiate in selection of man- power, bridge or links up past, present and future together for effective returns by bringing in future at door step of managers. Planning being the primary of all business function has tried to house all functions because, if it fails as house other thing will fail and so with the aid of proper planning business organisation are bound to succeed.
In to days business some people jumps into business world without minding the rate of planning and forecasting due to the believe that says “ with money all things are possible” and also believed that they are man enough to handle anything which is very wrong and also an abuse to the business concept. They tail to realize that success cometh not by assumption, but by real planning forecasting.
These question were also raised to scap out issues that manager is born not made and since proper planning and forecasting has brought increase in productivity that is immeasurable and quantifiable in today’ s business. What input can (planning and forecasting) this impact of planning and forecasting creates more progress in business, because the is a quote that says” those who fails to plan, plan to fail? And planning in its strict sense means being organized to co-ordinate things no matter the face of circumstances. Having known these, the important of planning and forecasting will not be far fetched or traced, since planning makes managers to have objective goals or resources to arrest them which can be of (m4) man material, money and machine and these eruo the modern strategy of (mbo) management by objective and being objective means seeing things from the generalized and adapted phase not with personal subjective phase. Does planning and forecasting have any theoretical back up or ground ? theories provide explanation which are responses to state of tension resulting from observing unexpected event (Toumin,1960) they represent efforts to reduce surprise caused by such events by giving plausible accounts of how they have come about. Mean while does planning and forecasting has any theoretical back up. Yes of course, it has, according planning will be complete you will need to propose details in forecasting of sales, profit, production, finance and man- power due to the fact that they will help to validate your plan”.
Another to Koontz and DONNELL(1980) define planning as deciding in advance what to do, how to do it,who is to do it and why it should be done. (management HEINEMAN OXFORD LONDON 1973:60)
Again, HENRY FAYOL says that planning and forewcasting is looking ahead includes both assessing the future and making provision for it”
Lastly but not the least that are going to mention is PETER DRUNKER in practical management 1995:p4. it says “ he that love his wife loves planning and he that hate planning embrace embarrassment; he that fails to plan, plans to fail.
To prove it worthy, it is justifiable to have scientific management theory backup for much laudable pronunciation in management. Can we really do without planning and forecasting? The answer will be yes due to, if man will still be a love after his hear has stop breathing. But if not, so business organization cannot do without embracing the role of planning and forecasting.
Again as a clock work without battery in it, and if man can not live without food it will be impossible for us to operate without planning and forecasting and if this is impossible, it is simple means that planning and forecasting is indispensable to business organisation.
What makes planning and forecasting the organic function of management is that it was found to be a master planner and breadwinner of the family (organization, it also found to be microchendra) (power house) in business life.
To answer question clear, Andrew faludi states mean of understanding of this world and his ability to act in it depends on his constructing an immanency in his own mind. This applies equally well that the planners under stand himself and his operation.
Finally is information an effective tool for planning and forecasting? Yes of course. Since planning aids to bringing future at the door step of an organization, this shows that planning is to manage future. According to peter Drunker, he says that “ to manage future is to manage business and to manage business is to manage information, planning and forecasting, it proves that information is life wire of a business planning and forecasting. These information, as a means of communication keeps business planning and forecasting in a brace with ever dynamic changes in business world for business to be standard, it must follow the trends of change in information to put up with fashion that is in vogue.
1.5 THE IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY
If this course or project does not its salt, it could not have been approved and the research, project supervisor believed that some people will benefit from this project topic when it is properly done.
Having known that planning is organic function of management; it bings much good to both in various ways. All business organisation both those that have arrived and get to arrive will benefit from these topic, if well utilized especially in areas of pricing quantity, man-power, money, capital control and so on.
This study is meant to examine the problems of planning and forecasting in business organisation. It will examine the role, which managers tries to implement by using planning and forecasting to advice effective and efficienct management of the organisation and society at large.
The research will also find solution to some of the problems managers encounter by implementing planning and forecasting in their day – to – day activities. However, the importance of the research to management of any organisation students both graduate and undergraduate will not be over emphasized. Family will also benefit from it since management is done by all and manning is first born and major aspect of management.
Government agency, and parastatals will also benefit from this topic by applying knowledge of planning and forecasting in service of civil servant. Politicians of these 5th republic and others to come will benefit from it by planning their political manifesto ideology.
Generally everybody or anybody and all that went to survive in these ever dynamic business world must learnt to plan and fore cast in these perilous or risk evil days ours.
1.6 DEFINITON OF IMPORTANT TERMS
MANAGEMENT:- this is the application of human and material resources in achieving the objective and efficiently through planning and forecasting.
MANAGER:- it is a person that makes use of the material and human resources of an organsiation in achieving their objectives.
PLANNING:- it is the act or process of making plan. Planning is a major component of the management process, which is concerned with defining ends, means and conduct at every level of organization life.
FORECASTING:-to say that one think will happen in the future base on information that he has now.
ORGANISATION:- it is a system of behaviour designed to enable human and their machines accomplished goals. Organisation is also defined as the sum total of the way in which it divides the labour distinct tasks and them achieves co-ordinates between them.
BUSINESS :- this is any economic activity oriented towards producing goods and services at profit for the satisfaction of mankind.
REFERENCES
Ani B.N, and Nwandu. E. (2001) Introduction to business management; Enugu; NERCT publishers.
Ani B.N.,Agbo G.O. and Nwandu E.(2002) Small business entrepreneurships Enugu; NERIT NERICT publishers.
Cole G.O (1996) Management theory and practice; F Fth edition London; Ashford Colours Press.
DALTON M..C. Far land; (1974) management principles and practice. Fourth edition. New York; Macmillan.
Philip Kotler. (2003) Marketing Management, millennium edition. India; prentice Ltd.